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۱۳۹۶ شهریور ۲۷, دوشنبه

Russia's long-term strategy: being present in the Black Sea, Mediterranean and Persian Gulf

That’s while Col. Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems of Russia, says: “Iran can benefit from Russia's military presence in the country, and this military presence would not be detrimental to Iran but also beneficial for its security. ... when we are there, could the US and Israel speak about military attack to Iran just like a few years ago?”

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Russia's long-term strategy: being present in the Black Sea, Mediterranean and Persian Gulf

Syria’s crisis not only raised the domestic war in the country, but also endangered Iran and Russia’s interests in the region, as a result, both of the countries have been actively present in Syria. In addition to that, however hidden, the dimensions of the military cooperation between the two countries have been dramatically increased. Nevertheless, two years ago, Russia's first ever use of the Nojeh Air Base in Iran raised a widespread dispute in between Iranians. [1] Justifying the Russian Air Force using the Iranian Air Base, Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, said that the Tehran-Moscow cooperation was a strategic collaboration. 2 He claimed that the base was used by Russia to hurt Assad's opponents. But, was that the whole story?

Putin's new Russia has drawn up a long-term strategy, which in a nutshell it can be called the strategy of being present in three seas; the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. Describing this strategy requires understanding Vladimir Putin's role in the current international system.

International system and Putin’s Russia
The Berlin Wall collapse ended the bipolar system dominating the international relations in the 1940s and 1990s. This period included a term of tension and competition in US-Soviet relations in different fields, including astronaut, weaponry, military and trade alliances, spying and anti-intelligence. It was called the “Cold War”, because a widespread and devastating war was likely to threaten not only the two countries, but also the whole world, due to the sever tension between the two poles.

However at the end of the era, Moscow was no longer a superpower. Yeltsin, Russia’s leader was a permanent tippler and its economy was weak and unable to overcome the West; then Vladimir Putin emerged in the country’s political arena, gradually boosting Russia's economy. In the boom of the Russia’s economy led by Putin, the government spent a sum of 51 billion dollars on Sochi's winter games in 2013.



New cold war
Edward Lucas, for the first time, discussed the new confrontation with the West in his book, “The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and its threat to the West” in 2009. The book suggests that Russia, led by Putin, would gradually shift from the process of cooperating with the West, to confronting with the West, which Lucas called it as the “New Cold War”. 3

Russia's sudden attack on Georgia in 2008 and the strategic separation of the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine and its annexation to Russia in 2014 are two examples of Russia and West's confrontation in the new Cold War situation.

Following the adhesion of Crimea to Russia, the country was dismissed from the “G 8” and sever sanctions on Moscow were imposed by Western countries. Although adding Crimea to Russia costed a heavy expense, the Washington Post, quoted from the Levada Polling Center, that Vladimir Putin's approval rating from 61% in November 2013 have been steady rose to a dramatic figure of 80 Percentage on April 24, 2014, as a result of adding Crimea to Russia. 4  

Russia's long-term strategy: being present in three seas
It would be hard to believe that the Russian bomber fighters in Iran was just to attack the Bashar Assad’s opponents. Although Assad's opponents were the target of the operation, the more important aim was Russia’s security strategy to protect its borders against the West. This security strategy is based on Russia's active presence on three seas, including the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf.




As it was mentioned, Russia saved control over the Black Sea through unilateral adhesion of Crimean strategic peninsula.

The second sea is the Mediterranean Sea, which Russia wants to control over these two seas through the Strait of Bosporus. This is while the entire Mediterranean Sea is under the control of the United States and its European allies. Moscow’s share of this great sea is only through the strategic sea base, Tartus in Latakia province, Syria, supervised since 1956.

The Syrian civil war provided Kremlin the opportunity of an active role in the region under the name of supporting Bashar al-Assad’s government. Currently, there are the military equipment of the Russian Army, including Sukhoi Su-30 and 27, airliners, Aircraft military ships, T-80 tanks, ground-to-air and ground-to-sea missiles, along with about 1,700 military experts at this military base.

Persian Gulf is the third essential sea for Russia. Unlike the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, where Moscow has already had access to, the warm water of the Persian Gulf has always been Moscow’s goal. Although there is no news on Moscow and Tehran agreements to deploy a naval base in the Persian Gulf to Russia, Russia's presence at the Nojeh Air Base in Hamedan is considered as the first sign of such a decision. It should be noted that the very limited news of Russia's presence in Nojeh caused the dissatisfaction of the Iranian defense minister so that he named it as “Russia’s betray” due to disclosing the confidential news. Therefore, a similar decision will likely be taken when it is necessary.


The Russians are here to stay
Given the assumption of a new Cold War engendered in the international system, it is likely that the news of Russia using the Nojeh Air Base represents the tip of the iceberg revealing many more hidden facts.

Concerning the secret agreements between Tehran and Moscow, the Supreme National Security Council secretary, Ali Shamkhani, described the cooperation with Russia as a strategic collaboration, noting that Moscow's return to the Hamedan Air Base depends on the developments in Syria. In this way, he opens the gates for the Moscow’s military re-entry to Iran.

That’s while Col. Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems of Russia, says: “Iran can benefit from Russia's military presence in the country, and this military presence would not be detrimental to Iran but also beneficial for its security. ... when we are there, could the US and Israel speak about military attack to Iran just like a few years ago?” 5

The statement indicates that Moscow's tactic of being present in Iran is not only for eliminating the Syria’s government opponents, but also resolving the threats toward Iran. In other words, the statement reveals that even if the Syrian crisis ends in favor of Tehran and Moscow, Russia's presence in Iran, on the pretext of eliminating the United States and Israel’s threat, will be a blessing from Moscow to Iran. Considering such explanation, Russia's strategy for confronting the United States (which deployed its fifth fleet in Bahrain) is nothing but consolidating its situation in the Persian Gulf.



















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