That’s while Col. Leonid Ivashov, the president
of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems of Russia, says: “Iran can benefit
from Russia's military presence in the country, and this military presence
would not be detrimental to Iran but also beneficial for its security. ... when
we are there, could the US and Israel speak about military attack to Iran just
like a few years ago?”
Russia's long-term strategy: being present in the
Black Sea, Mediterranean and Persian Gulf
Syria’s crisis
not only raised the domestic war in the country, but also endangered Iran and
Russia’s interests in the region, as a result, both of the countries have been
actively present in Syria. In addition to that, however hidden, the dimensions
of the military cooperation between the two countries have been dramatically
increased. Nevertheless, two years ago, Russia's first ever use of the Nojeh
Air Base in Iran raised a widespread dispute in between Iranians. [1]
Justifying the Russian Air Force using the Iranian Air Base, Ali Shamkhani, the
secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, said that the
Tehran-Moscow cooperation was a strategic collaboration. 2 He claimed that the base was used by
Russia to hurt Assad's opponents. But, was that the whole story?
Putin's new
Russia has drawn up a long-term strategy, which in a nutshell it can be called
the strategy of being present in three seas; the Black Sea, the Mediterranean
and the Persian Gulf. Describing this strategy requires understanding Vladimir
Putin's role in the current international system.
International
system and Putin’s Russia
The Berlin Wall
collapse ended the bipolar system dominating the international relations in the
1940s and 1990s. This period included a term of tension and competition in
US-Soviet relations in different fields, including astronaut, weaponry,
military and trade alliances, spying and anti-intelligence. It was called the
“Cold War”, because a widespread and devastating war was likely to threaten not
only the two countries, but also the whole world, due to the sever tension
between the two poles.
However at the
end of the era, Moscow was no longer a superpower. Yeltsin, Russia’s leader was
a permanent tippler and its economy was weak and unable to overcome the West;
then Vladimir Putin emerged in the country’s political arena, gradually
boosting Russia's economy. In the boom of the Russia’s economy led by Putin,
the government spent a sum of 51 billion dollars on Sochi's winter games in
2013.
New cold war
Edward Lucas,
for the first time, discussed the new confrontation with the West in his book,
“The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and its threat to the West” in 2009. The book
suggests that Russia, led by Putin, would gradually shift from the process of
cooperating with the West, to confronting with the West, which Lucas called it
as the “New Cold War”. 3
Russia's sudden
attack on Georgia in 2008 and the strategic separation of the Crimea peninsula from
Ukraine and its annexation to Russia in 2014 are two examples of Russia and
West's confrontation in the new Cold War situation.
Following the
adhesion of Crimea to Russia, the country was dismissed from the “G 8” and
sever sanctions on Moscow were imposed by Western countries. Although adding
Crimea to Russia costed a heavy expense, the Washington Post, quoted from the
Levada Polling Center, that Vladimir Putin's approval rating from 61% in
November 2013 have been steady rose to a
dramatic figure of 80 Percentage on April 24, 2014, as a result of adding
Crimea to Russia. 4
Russia's long-term strategy: being present in three seas
It would be
hard to believe that the Russian bomber fighters in Iran was just to attack the
Bashar Assad’s opponents. Although Assad's opponents were the target of the
operation, the more important aim was Russia’s security strategy to protect its
borders against the West. This security strategy is based on Russia's active
presence on three seas, including the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the
Persian Gulf.
As it was mentioned, Russia saved control over the Black Sea
through unilateral adhesion of Crimean strategic peninsula.
The second sea is the Mediterranean Sea, which Russia wants to
control over these two seas through the Strait of Bosporus. This is while the
entire Mediterranean Sea is under the control of the United States and its
European allies. Moscow’s share of this great sea is only through the strategic
sea base, Tartus in Latakia province, Syria, supervised since 1956.
The Syrian civil war provided Kremlin the opportunity of an active
role in the region under the name of supporting Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Currently, there are the military equipment of the Russian Army, including
Sukhoi Su-30 and 27, airliners, Aircraft military ships, T-80 tanks,
ground-to-air and ground-to-sea missiles, along with about 1,700 military
experts at this military base.
Persian Gulf is
the third essential sea for Russia. Unlike the Black Sea and the Mediterranean,
where Moscow has already had access to, the warm water of the Persian Gulf has
always been Moscow’s goal. Although there is no news on Moscow and Tehran
agreements to deploy a naval base in the Persian Gulf to Russia, Russia's
presence at the Nojeh Air Base in Hamedan is considered as the first sign of
such a decision. It should be noted that the very limited news of Russia's presence
in Nojeh caused the dissatisfaction of the Iranian defense minister so that he
named it as “Russia’s betray” due to disclosing the confidential news.
Therefore, a similar decision will likely be taken when it is necessary.
The Russians are here to stay
Given the
assumption of a new Cold War engendered in the international system, it is
likely that the news of Russia using the Nojeh Air Base represents the tip of
the iceberg revealing many more hidden facts.
Concerning the
secret agreements between Tehran and Moscow, the Supreme National Security
Council secretary, Ali Shamkhani, described the cooperation with Russia as a
strategic collaboration, noting that Moscow's return to the Hamedan Air Base
depends on the developments in Syria. In this way, he opens the gates for the
Moscow’s military re-entry to Iran.
That’s while
Col. Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems of
Russia, says: “Iran can benefit from Russia's military presence in the country,
and this military presence would not be detrimental to Iran but also beneficial
for its security. ... when we are there, could the US and Israel speak about
military attack to Iran just like a few years ago?” 5
The statement indicates that Moscow's tactic of being present in
Iran is not only for eliminating the Syria’s government opponents, but also
resolving the threats toward Iran. In other words, the statement reveals that
even if the Syrian crisis ends in favor of Tehran and Moscow, Russia's presence
in Iran, on the pretext of eliminating the United States and Israel’s threat,
will be a blessing from Moscow to Iran. Considering such explanation, Russia's
strategy for confronting the United States (which deployed its fifth fleet in
Bahrain) is nothing but consolidating its situation in the Persian Gulf.
http://gidss.com/content/russias-long-term-strategy-being-present-black-sea-mediterranean-sea-and-persian-gulf
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